How the Pirates can WIN the Chris Archer trade

The Chris Archer trade was one of the biggest deadline stunners we’ve had in recent history, right up there with the José Quintana trade. Most people expected Archer to be shipped off by the deadline, but the expected destinations were teams like the Padres, not the Pirates. The trade was definitely the biggest part of the deadline, as Archer was a highly toubted pitcher who was having a down year. In this article, I’ll analyze the trade, the prospects given up, Archer, and how the Pirates can win the trade.

So the Pirates were in the midst of a season that had their fans scratching their heads with confusion but with some delight, as they had a 56-52 record at the time of the trade. This was not expected after they shipped off Gerrit Cole to the Astros and Andrew McCutchen to the Giants. With this, they decided to pull of a huge head-scratcher, try and contend for a postseason spot while technically rebuilding. They had some shiny prospects to give away for a big name, namely Austin Meadows who was the centerpiece in the Archer deal, and a few guys who teams could be interested in which they capitalized on by trading for Keone Kela from the Rangers.

So, with this in mind, they decided to make a huge deal for a good upgrade in their rotation with Archer. So, on July 31 they traded away outfielder Meadows, righty starter Tyler Glasnow, and righty pitching prospect Shane Baz for Archer. From the looks of it, this trade will likely not go in the Pirates’ favor. The prospects they gave up have some good upside and for an Archer who has never been able to get the Rays to a postseason appearance it seems like a steal for Tampa Bay, but it also could go into Pittsburgh’s favor.

Analysis of the prospects

Meadows is the best of the three, in his minor league career he has never impressed too much, but this year he posted a .303 BA, .348 OBP, .533 SLG, and a .880 OPS in 261 at-bats. He was ranked 17th on the 2017 MLB Prospect Watch. He has been praised by scouts for his smooth swing, sneaky power, and a good eye. He has even drawn some comparisons to slugger Jay Bruce.

“He has a very smooth left-handed swing, one that has largely featured a hit-first approach, though the power started to show up a bit more in 2016. He draws walks and does not strike out a ton, though he struggled a bit in Triple-A for the first time.” -MLB Prospect Watch about Meadows

Glasnow has some good upside as well, he has been very inconsistent in his career but he is a flamethrower, as his fastball frequently hits the high-90s. Knowing how the Rays have been able to develop fastball pitchers so well, in my opinion they saw Glasnow as a poor man’s Archer. In 2016, Glasnow was also ranked high at 8 on the top 100. Scouts praised his main pitches, his well-rounded arsenal of a fastball, curve, and changeup, although now he mainly uses only his fastball and curveball.

Baz is underrated, though not in the top 100, he is only 19 in rookie league, with an arsenal of 5 pitches, a fastball, curve, cutter, slider, and changeup. His arsenal is what will carry him according to many scouts, his fastball is consistent low-to-mid 90s and his cutter has potential to turn into a good major league curveball. The Rays also know how to develop good pitching, so if Baz helps improve his breaking balls he could be a threat in that rotation.

Analysis on Chris Archer

I will say this trade is intriguing for Pittsburgh. They were rebuilding before the season, trading Cole to the Astros and McCutchen to the Giants. But they had some success during the season, so they decided to pull the trigger on a very good pitcher. Archer struggled this season, posting a 6-8 record, 4.31 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 162 strikeouts, 49 walks, and a .268 BAA in 148.1 innings pitched. Archer did miss a whole month this year with a left abdominal strain, so it’s something to think about considering stats.

Archer has had tons of upside in the past though, as in 2017 he posted 249 strikeouts in 201 innings pitched with a 4.07 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and in 2016 he posted 233 strikeouts in 201.1 innings pitched with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Those are great stats, even though the ERA is barely average or below average, the strikeout numbers are easily top in the league. His strikeouts per 9 innings has reached above 10 three of the last four years he’s pitched and his strikeouts to walks consistently reaches the 3.3+ range each year, sometimes going above 4.

His walks haven’t done him a huge favor, as his walks per 9 innings consistently reach near the 3 range, although this actually is good, as one walk every three innings is very consistent and good. His hits per 9 innings also usually rounds to either the 8 or 9 range, which is good considering that’s a 1 or below WHIP excluding the walks.

How can the Pirates WIN this trade?

If the Pirates don’t make any improvements this offseason then the Rays will win this trade for sure in my opinion and either way they probably will but the Pirates still can win it. With Archer in that rotation is 4.19 ERA Ivan Nova, 3.2 ERA Jameson Taillon, 3.11 ERA Trevor Williams, and 5.21 ERA Nick Kingham. That rotation on its own is deadly, but the Pirates also have a righty pitching prospect Mitch Keller, who’s ranked 16 on the top 100.

Keller is likely major league ready at age 22, as he has spent a decent portion of the season in Triple-A. His arsenal is small, featuring a consistent 93-96 mph fastball, an 82 mph 11-5 curve, and a 91 mph but a bit underdeveloped changeup. The one thing scouts have praised him for is his spectacular ability to control the strike zone, consistently throwing pitches in the zone. His control rating by scouts is at 60, close to the best you can get, so if he combines his tools he should be deadly.

The hitting for Pittsburgh has to be improved as well. It wasn’t awful, but in most stats, such as batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS they were average or a bit below average. One thing they could to improve is their power, as they ranked 25th in the MLB in home runs at 157. One underrated bat the Pirates should pursue is Josh Donaldson, who’s stats had a dip in 2018 due to injury, but when he’s healthy he’s a monster, posting MVP type seasons in 2015-2017, all with 30+ home runs and a .930+ OPS. He’d not only provide the power bat the Pirates need, but also would provide run support for the starters.

Another few guys with some pop who could be effective to the Pirates would be Jed Lowrie, Eduardo Escobar, and Brian Dozier. Lowrie and Escobar would likely be a bit costly, but they have power and contact while hitting for a decent to good average. Dozier had a bad year, hitting over 20 home runs but his average and splits were low. Daniel Murphy and Asdrúbal Cabrera should also be guys the Pirates have interest in. Murphy provides a good contact bat while Cabrera has some sneaky pop to likely be a 3 hitter.

For the outfield, they don’t have many open spots, but a few guys they should keep their mind open on are re-signing Cutch, Nelson Cruz, Melky Cabrera, or Curtis Granderson. Cutch is a no-brainer, solid pop and decent contact with a solid eye and good fielding in right field, great to re-sign for Pittsburgh. Cruz is a huge power bat, and while he’s inexperienced in the outfield and aging he’s an incredible power hitter. Cabrera has good contact and a good eye, with the White Sox his average was consistently near the .300s. Granderson also was good this year, with solid power but not great contact.

Overall, with some additions and re-tooling of the lineups, this could end up going in Pittsburgh’s favor. We’ll have to see until the prospects develop, the Pirates did give up a lot of talent on their team. Overall, I see this trade going in Tampa Bay’s favor, but if the Pirates add some roster depth, improve the bullpen, etc this will likely be a solid trade for them if Archer rebounds.