The 2018 MLB season is over halfway through as we approach the All Star Game in about a week. As the All Star Game nears, so does the trade deadline, so we will be saying many trades unfold, some interesting and some not. One of these, if it were to happen, would be the Nationals trading the greatest player in the history of their franchise, Bryce Harper.
On the surface, you might be thinking that I have a brain tumor to write this, but this would be a very interesting trade and isn’t on the complete border of insanity. First of all, the Nats have a record of 44-43, which is really surprising considering the great hitting of top outfield prospect Juan Soto and return of Adam Eaton for most of the season. Most of the pitching has been slacking though and so has Bryce, as he is hitting for a .211 AVG, 21 home runs, 50 RBI, .364 OBP, .470 SLG, .834 OPS. I would compare how he is headed to Kyle Schwarber’s season last year, where he hit a .211 AVG, 30 HR, 59 RBI, .315 OBP, .467 SLG, .782 OPS. Now, I’m not insane, I doubt it’ll be like that, but it could be similar, especially how his average and OPS have been dropping.
The Nats record means that, for the first time in years, they run the huge risk of not winning the NL East and possibly even making the playoffs in general! They right now are 5 games back from the NL East lead and a Wild Card spot, and to get past this, they’ll have to beat the Dodgers, Cardinals, Rockies, Braves/Cubs, and Giants out until they make a spot. That’s not easy at all.
Their rotation has been solid, but regressing and injured. Max Scherzer is as good as ever, pitching a 2.16 ERA, Stephen Strasburg has been injured an has a 3.46 ERA, Gio Gonzalez has regressed to a 3.76 ERA, Tanner Roark has really regressed to a 4.60 ERA, and Jeremy Hellickson has a 3.81 ERA. Solid, but they’re definitely regressing compared to last year. If they want to win a World Series this year, they’ll probably need a better rotation to carry them there, although they could make it deep if they even make it in general.
The Nationals’ hitting has been extremely unlucky this year. Lots of people are either regressing or are injured. Daniel Murphy has had both, and has a .188 AVG and .491 OPS in 69 at-bats this season. Wieters has been injured, although he hasn’t produced much in Washington. Ryan Zimmermann and Howie Kendrick are both on the 60-day DL with a right oblique strain for Zimmermann and an Achilles injury to Kendrick. Anthony Rendon has been doing solid with a .281 AVG and .860 OPS, but not as good as last year when he had a .301 AVG and .937 OPS.
Pros and Cons
Trading Harper is a big question for the Nats. First of all, they’ll have to spread the word that they could trade him and they’d have to see how many teams are interested and will give up some good prospects for him. Teams that I think would have some immediate interest would be the Braves, Astros, Phillies, and Cardinals just to name a few, and they all have some good prospects. Acquiring him isn’t as amazing as it sounds, as doing so is like bragging about acquiring Scott Schebler. It might not even be as impressive as that, because Harper is a free agent after the current year, so the team that could acquire him could lose him after the current season.
A few pros in trading Harper could be like what Brian Cashman did when he traded Chapman to the Cubs. He got a surplus of prospects from Theo Epstein and he was able to resign Chapman. The Nats could try and do the same thing with Harper, trading him and resigning him the next year which actually strengthens their team. It also allows the Nats to get worse which will give them a higher spot in the draft so they can get a higher pick. Another pro would be that the Nats could try and develop some of their minor leaguers more in Harper’s absence. They’ll obviously need an outfield replacement, so someone like Victor Robles, one of the Nats’ top outfield prospects, can learn more in the MLB and be more prepared for the next season to either take over in Harper’s absence or help him with Soto if he returns.
There are obviously some immediate cons though as well. Obviously the first one would be that the Nats’ chance for a playoff spot or run would be depleted to almost nothing without Bryce, so his final year with DC could end on a sad note. Another would be the lack of experience that the Nats could face when training outfielders like Robles and Soto, who I previously mentioned. The best way to learn anything, and this applies to the MLB, is to learn it from a pro, and Harper could definitely teach them both a few tricks to become stud outfielders. If he’s not there anymore, they’ll lack an experienced outfield presence who’s a stud. Adam Eaton is alright, but he’s not the guy you want exclusively teaching Soto and Robles to adjust to the major leagues.
This is a trickier situation than one might think. Mike Rizzo is definitely going to have to think this one over as July 31 nears more because of the fact that this is Harper’s last year definitely in Washington, and their record and team in general haven’t been nearly as good as they wished. It’ll be very interesting to see if he decides to pursue this route, and it’ll be exciting to see how this could potentially change the MLB in a big way this year.
The MLB Enthusiast 