Going into the offseason, it’s clear that the Cubs have an extensive amount of directions to take. They’re coming off of an 84-78 season with a projected competitive balance payroll of $214M ($6M over the competitive balance tax or CBT). So far, the deck has been perceived to be greatly out of their favor and it seems difficult for the Cubs to even out those odds.
Enter in Kris Bryant, the Cubs’s marquee third baseman under control until after the 2021 season. In Bryant’s career with the Cubs, he has not failed to the standards of his pedigree. In 3105 PA, he has posted a .284/.385/.516 slash line, 139 wRC+, .383 wOBA (.367 xwOBA), 167.6 wRAA, and 5.3 rWAR/150 games. It’s no wonder he has garnered trade interest from teams with young, valuable depth, such as the Nationals, Phillies, and Braves.
The Talent on the Cubs’s Roster Now
While the Cubs are in a difficult position financially, they do have a very adequate core to build off of for next year.
In the rotation, Yu Darvish presents his role as the Cubs’s long-awaited ace. From 2017-2019 he posted a 3.68 SIERA, 3.59 xFIP (82 xFIP-), 29.0 K%, and 21.0 K-BB% in 1677 TBF. His SIERA ranked 18th in the MLB in this time span as well. Kyle Hendricks, while not being an ace, provides strong value to the team. In the last three seasons, Hendricks has finished in the 92nd percentile or above in exit velocity and has one season with an xwOBA above .300 (.318 being league average).
Quintana and Jon Lester also give depth as middle/back-of-the-rotation-starters. In Quintana’s case, he has posted a 4.22 SIERA and 4.03 xFIP over the last three seasons. Lester, while being the worst out of the current four, has some value with an above league average 4.38 SIERA and 4.21 xFIP (99 xFIP-) since 2017.
In the bullpen, a back-end with a lot of potential exists. Star pitcher Craig Kimbrel leads the charge, having posted a 2.16 SIERA, 2.61 xFIP (60 xFIP-), 42.2 K%, and 32.7 K-BB% since 2017. He also has consistently had an xwOBA under .300, with a career-low at .241, besides his short, but an ugly stint in 2019. Brandon Morrow and Dan Winkler were signed to compete in set-up roles. Since 2017, both have been able to impress. Morrow had a 2.95 SIERA, 3.04 xFIP (72 xFIP-), 27.7 K%, and 21.6 K-BB% while Winkler had a 3.55 SIERA, 3.98 xFIP (95 xFIP)-, 27.2 K%, and 18.0 K-BB%.
A logjam of middle relievers is present as well. Ryan Tepera, the probable headliner of the group, has been quite adequate when healthy. Before his injury-riddled season in 2019, he posted a career 3.72 SIERA, 3.91 pCRA, 4.24 xFIP (99 xFIP-), 23.8 K%, and 15.1 K-BB%. Behind him, Trevor Megill, Rowan Wick, Alec Mills, and James Norwood provide ample upside. Megill headlines this group, with a career 3.22 FIP, 32.9 K%, and 25.6 K-BB% in 656 TBF during his minor league career. Tyson Miller, Jharel Cotton, Duane Underwood Jr, Dillon Maples, Colin Rea, and Adbert Alzolay all provide depth roles as well.
In terms of lefties, Brad Wieck leads the charge. In his long and illustrious minor league career, he posted a 3.22 FIP, 32.9 K%, and 25.6 K-BB% in 656 TBF. Kyle Ryan has been a fantastic specialist, posting a 3.64 xFIP, 23.3 K%, and 14.6 K-BB% in 103 TBF for the Cubs against lefties.
Of the Cubs’s primary bats, Bryant is predominant. However, that doesn’t expunge the impact of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, shortstop Javier Báez, and left fielder Kyle Schwarber. Rizzo, since 2017, has posted a .282/.391/.498 slash line, 133 wRC+, and .376 wOBA (.384 xwOBA). He also had 16 DRS in 3894 innings. Báez’s pièce de résistance comes from his fantastic glove, as he had 19 DRS at shortstop in 2152.2 innings and 10 DRS at second base in 1203.1 innings since 2017. However, his bat has also been very satisfactory, given his 115 wRC+ and .348 wOBA (.329 xwOBA) since 2017. Schwarber has performed well all-around as well. Since 2017, he has posted a .234/.337/.492 slash line, 113 wRC+, and .345 wOBA (.359 xwOBA). He has also been a valuable fielder in this time span, posting a 6.3 UZR/150 and 11 rARM.
Leading the next tier of beneficial hitters would be right fielder Jason Heyward and catcher Willson Contreras. Like Báez, his main value is from his glove, as he has posted a 5.8 UZR/150 and six rARM since 2017. His bat is satisfactory, however, given his 96 wRC+ and .320 wOBA (.329 xwOBA). Contreras, 27, has been quite adequate since 2017, given his .264/.349/.467 slash line, 115 wRC+, .348 wOBA (.332 xwOBA), 34.0 wRAA, and 2 WARP/150 in 1381 PA. However, his defense presents itself as a strong issue, given his -9.5 FRAA/150 in that same sample. Following him would likely be moderate depth in catcher Caratini, second baseman David Bote, utilityman Ian Happ, and top prospect Nico Hoerner.
For the bottom tier of hitters, second baseman Robel Garcia and center fielder Albert Almora lead the upside in very different ways. In his minor league stint with the Cubs in 2019, he posted a .284/.369/.586 slash line, 135 wRC+, and .398 wOBA. Almora, on the other hand, specializes in his defense, given his 4.1 defensive rating (DEF), 1 rARM, and 12 OAA in 2,332 innings since 2017. Other than them, young shortstop prospect Zack Short, utilityman Tony Kemp, and pinch hitter Daniel Descalso are grouped there.
The Talent on the Cubs’s Roster in the Future
While not having the talent in their farm system that they used to have, the Cubs’s still have solid pieces to consider in their future.
For pieces in their top 100 according to the MLB Pipeline, Nico Hoerner and Miguel Amaya stand out. Hoerner, ranked 47th overall, has impressed in his short minor league career. He has posted a .297/.365/.427 slash line, 130 wRC+, .365 wOBA, and 13.2 wRAA in 375 PA. In his largest sample, in AA at 294 PA, he posted an adequate 104 DRC+ as well. Amaya, ranked 90th overall, has exceeded expectations for the Cubs despite his youth. Since 2017, he has posted a .242/.332/.388 slash line, 108 wRC+, .334 wOBA, and 9.1 wRAA in 1133 PA. Amaya has been even more impressive recently, given his 4.1 WARP/150, 124 DRC+, and 2.8 FRAA in 2019.
Leading the next tier of prospects would be outfielder Brennen Davis and left-handed pitcher Brailyn Marquez. Davis, ranked 3rd overall in the Cubs’s system, has been extremely impressive in his small sample with the team. In 276 PA, he has posted a .303/.394/.479 slash line, 153 wRC+, .407 wOBA, and 17.2 wRAA. In his most recent season, where he had 204 PA, he had a 155 DRC+. Marquez, ranked fourth overall in their system, has also been stupendous, with a 3.39 FIP, 26.3 K%, and 17.0 K-BB% in 1093 TBF. Also being a part of this core would be outfielder Cole Roederer, shortstop Aramis Ademan, right-handed pitcher Ryan Jensen, and second baseman Chase Strumpf.
Leading the next tier of prospects would be left-handed pitcher Justin Steele and right-handed pitcher Tyson Miller. The lefty, while being injured, has been impressive in his minor league career, with a 3.56 FIP, 22.5 K%, and 13.2 K-BB% in 1,402 TBF. Miller, who has mostly improved the last two seasons, has been moderate since 2017. In that time span, he has posted a 4.05 FIP, 21.7 K%, and 14.4 K-BB% in 1,607 TBF. Also comprising this group would be right-handed pitchers Riley Thompson, Kohl Franklin, and Cory Abbott as well as third baseman Chris Morel.
In terms of sleepers, more excitement awaits for the Cubs. Headlining that group would be right-handed pitchers Richard Gallardo and shortstop Pedro Martinez. Gallardo, who was ranked 8th on the MLB’s international prospects list in 2018, signed for the Cubs in 2018 for $1M. While having poor stats so far, he has pitched in a very small 150 TBF sample and is only 18 years old. Martinez, while young and in a small sample, has been very impressive statistically. In his minor league career, he has posted a .310/.393/.422 slash line, 133 wRC+, .392 wOBA, and 20.5 wRAA in 461 PA. In his largest single-season sample, in 2018 with 228 PA, he posted a 150 DRC+ as well.
“The best pitching prospect out of Venezuela and the top hurler overall in this year’s class, Gallardo is smart and fearless on the mound. Evaluators believe he can be a top-of-the-rotation type of pitcher if he stays healthy and continues to develop his tools at a normal pace.” -Gallardo’s scouting report on the 2018 MLB Pipeline
While those two are some of the best of the Cubs’s sleepers, they aren’t the only two. Right-handed pitcher Yovanny Cruz has developed well for his previous pedigree. While he ranks 19th on the Cubs’s top 30 right now, he originally signed for $60,000 in 2016. Catchers Ronnier Quintero, who was ranked sixth overall in 2019’s international prospects list, and Ethan Hearn, who was drafted in the sixth round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of high school, also comprise this tier of Cubs prospects.
How the Cubs Should Revise Their Depth Chart
It’s clear the Cubs have numerous routes this offseason going into next year. They have five tradable talents that are top-tier in comparison to their roster chart, some moveable payroll, and numerous amounts of depth pieces to work with or build around.
The preeminent issue with them remains their payroll. As I have aforementioned, $6M above the CBT is not an ideal place this early in the offseason. However, they have moveable pieces on their roster. The most moveable pieces would likely be Tyler Chatwood, who is receiving $13M in 2020, and José Quintana, who is receiving $10.5M. Chatwood, 29, enters 2020 with three seasons under a 100 xFIP- (100 being league average) and a 4.41 SIERA in 324 TBF in 2019. Quintana, 30, has only had two seasons with an xFIP- over 100 and came off a near career-low in SIERA at 4.50 in 745 TBF in 2019.
While Quintana is a very adequate option for the Cubs’s starting rotation next season, Chatwood’s future role with the team remains very unclear. His 5.48 SIERA, 16.3 BB%, and 5.00 xFIP in 810 TBF with the Cubs greatly hinder his ability to slot in as a final rotation starter. While a bullpen role could be satisfactory, salary relief remains a far better option. Depending on his current value, packaging one or more of right-handed pitchers Adbert Alzolay, Jensen, and Abbott could get a significant portion of his $13M off of the Cubs’s payroll.
Given the willingness to sway away from the tax, it could prove difficult for the Cubs to get a starter and/or extra roster depth with the limited money they have. However, a trade involving their most expendable player, Contreras, could come in handy.
Given his adequate stats, his value won’t garner them top-tier talent. However, his talent could garner assets for better use to the Cubs than just Contreras himself, such as a starter, farm system depth, or extra players for their 40-man roster.
Contreras’s expendability isn’t primarily due to his statistics but rather the circumstances around him. In the 2020 offseason, the catcher market is more accustomed to the ideal facets of a backup. In the Cubs’s case, catchers like Caleb Joseph, Russell Martin, etc provide upside as good framers. Victor Caratini also had a breakout season in a small sample size for the Cubs, posting a .266/.348/.447 slash line, 108 wRC+, .338 wOBA, 4.4 wRAA, and 2.4 WARP/150 in 279 PA.
In terms of free agents, the clear place of need is an outfielder spot. For upside with the bat and given the Cubs’s current budget, Matt Joyce, Steven Souza Jr., and more provide upside. For upside as a plus glove to varying degrees, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Dyson, and Guillermo Heredia are safe options. Leading the charge out of all of them would likely be Souza. Despite a very serious knee injury that left him out of most of 2018 and all of 2019, he was very valuable all-around in 2017. With the bat, he posted a .239/.351/.459 slash line, 3.8 fWAR, 121 wRC+, and .348 wOBA (.351 xwOBA). He also had a valuable glove, with eight OAA, 4.9 UZR/150, and two rARM.
The Cubs’s Future Financial Status
Like I have aforementioned, $6M above the luxury tax is not an ideal place to be in this early in the offseason. However, when looking past the dilemma they face now, there is a glaring light at the end of the tunnel. One that takes a long, but worthwhile, two years walk to get to.
To start, a lot of guaranteed salary is leaving the roster. In total, Lester ($20M), Bryant (~$18.5M), Rizzo ($16.5M), potentially Kimbrel ($16M), Chatwood ($13M), Quintana ($10.5M), Báez (~$9.3M), Schwarber (~$8M), Descalso ($2.5M), Morrow ($1M), and Winkler ($.750M) are possible free agents after the 2021 season. While there are incentives for some of the aforementioned players, this model only assumes their guaranteed salaries. The only one currently up for debate is Kimbrel, who has a $16M team option for the 2022 season. In total, that’s around $115.05M should Kimbrel become a free agent. However, when factoring in other contract increases or decreases, that number turns to $113.5M.
Arbitration is where more uncertainty lies. After the 2021 season, the Cubs have 13 players entering different arbitration years. They are Contreras (3), Caratini (2), Almora (3), Happ (2), Kemp (2), Cotton (3), Rea (3), Ryan (2), Maples (1), Mills (1), Underwood Jr. (1), Wick (1), and Wieck (1). While many of these players have uncertain or unproven statuses, it’s certainly something that could make a dent in that $113.5M.
The most important thing about that $113.5M is that it allows the Cubs to extend their crucial pieces in the core. Being able to do that could, plausibly, keep Bryant, Báez, Rizzo, and Schwarber for the long haul. With Hendricks and Darvish already locked up to team-friendly contracts until at least the 2024 season and an increase in the luxury tax, this could prove instrumental in keeping the main core together for the Cubs.
The main issues with spending that money for the Cubs involve keeping together some depth pieces that are free agents shortly after the main four and replacing the production of free agents leaving. Happ, Caratini, Contreras, and Ryan headline the free agents after the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively. Quintana, Lester, Kimbrel, Chatwood, Descalso, Morrow, and Winkler would also go to save the maximum $113.5M guaranteed.
For the scenario involving the former, the players the Cubs have on their farm could help replace some if not all of them. For example, the addition of Amaya to the Cubs could help to or completely negate a loss in Contreras or Caratini. The Cubs could also extend them to lesser deals than the main four, helping to keep those wins in the Northside.
For the latter scenario, the heaviest losses would be the first three. While they don’t provide the value of the main core, their value still is valuable. For Quintana and Lester, the Cubs could capitalize on a starting pitcher in free agency or get lucky on some of their minor league arms such as Marquez and Gallardo. For Kimbrel, the Cubs could acquire a closer in free agency for less money than Kimbrel’s $16M team option for the 2022 season. They also could get lucky on an arm such as Thompson or Franklin.
Bryant’s Value to the Cubs and Why He Should Stay Long-Term
As I have aforementioned, Bryant’s value is not one to undervalue. As aforementioned, he has a career 5.3 rWAR/150. However, his fWAR/150 ranks higher, at 5.9. In terms of career fWAR compared to other Cubs, with the starting year of 1919, Bryant ranks 15th among every Cub in that timespan. He’s also the only player in the top 15 with under 800 games and one of three under 1,000.
In terms of dollars to fWAR, Bryant also shines. While his lowest was $18.7M in 2018, it’s still quite adequate and it was his only sub-500 PA year (457). Besides that, his lowest was an astounding $38.4M in 2019 with his highest being an unbelievable $62.8M in 2016. In terms of his career dollars in a 600 PA sample, Bryant would be projected to earn $43.0M.
Where Bryant’s value really shines is offensively. With the same aforementioned parameters including a 2,500 PA minimum, Bryant ranks second among every Cub in wRC+ at 139. In terms of wOBA, Bryant ties at 10th with Andy Pafko at .383 and, in terms of ISO, he ranks fifth at .232. What’s really impressive in this regard is where Bryant ranks in wRAA, which is a counting stat. This means that, since it’s not weighted, players with more PA can gain advantages from more playing time. However, Bryant ranks 17th in this stat, at 168.0. He is one of three players above him to have less than 4000 PA as well.
Likewise, Bryant also ranks highly among the league right now. When ranking him among the league since 2015 with a 2,500 PA minimum, he ranks third in fWAR, 11th in wRC+, 11th in wOBA, and 13th in wRAA.
While it’s intriguing to think about what the Cubs could acquire for Bryant, the best move is for them to keep him. The main reason would be the fact that he’s the best player on the team and they can win with him now and for the long-term. While their core isn’t spectacular, it’s very satisfactory and one that can win with Bryant. They also have future talent on their team now and on their farm, as aforementioned.
Another strong reason would be the fact that the Cubs can afford to keep Bryant. As aforementioned, the Cubs will lose a guaranteed $113.5M from now until his free agency year (without arbitration in mind). While keeping Bryant isn’t their only option, it certainly is a very logical one with the salary they will lose.
The Cubs certainly are in an interesting place. They have numerous directions they could decide their future into, one of them being Bryant’s status. They also have a valuable core both right now and for the long-term, that consist of players with varying futures. While they certainly have their fair share of struggles, like their payroll in the short-term, it’s simply not worth trading their best and most valuable player, Bryant.
The MLB Enthusiast 