As the 2019 Trade Deadline looms closer, one of the many questions around the baseball community is the status of Boyd. Despite an alleged hefty price tag, the 28-year-old southpaw is posting very adequate numbers this season. Those numbers include a 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 168 K, 26 BB, and a .241 BAA in 126 IP. The most glaring scrutiny when it comes to Boyd is how his numbers have gotten worse over time, similar to last year. But, are these numbers what they seem? In this article, I will break down Boyd’s advanced numbers and give my argument as to why he’s worth a good price.
While the Tigers likely won’t acquire an “established young MLB star” for Boyd, he can still garner some well above average prospects. From an initial standpoint, he doesn’t seem to be anything more than a two or three starter. With his inconsistency, some teams could be turned off trading the farm for him. Digging deeper, however, he has been a very satisfactory pitcher. Again, not worth what they want, but potentially worth multiple top 100 prospects.
The biggest issue with Boyd is his inconsistency. His ERA is very up-and-down, so having it be down as of late isn’t helping his value. His ERA in June-July is 5.74, likely attributed to the amount of power his opponents have when hitting his pitches. Through June and July, he has a .266 BAA, .350 BABIP, 2.53 HR/9, and a 25.9 HR/FB% in 53.1 IP. His control throughout this stretch, however, has been outstanding. He has a 13.5 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, and a 7.27 K/BB.
With those home run numbers and batting average on balls in play, he may seem like a poor investment for the price tag. But, his advanced numbers signify the opposite. I will now ask you to do something unorthodox. I want you to completely ignore Boyd’s ERA. ERA can prove to be an inconsistent stat when diving into his advanced numbers, as the inflation of ERA can be unfair for a pitcher. In the aforementioned stretch, his FIP is 4.5 and his xFIP is 2.99. The severe difference can be attributed to how elite his control is and the number of home runs he gives up. xFIP calculates your FIP using “an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to fly ball percentage”, per FanGraphs. So, a 2.99 xFIP should purely show how good his control is using the aforementioned algorithm. The problem with FIP and xFIP is they don’t take into account balls in play, that’s where SIERA comes in.
SIERA takes into account balls in play, “but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs”, per FanGraphs. SIERA also values control very highly. It gives more emphasis on strikeouts and walks as well, as the former helps generate poor contact while the latter helps limit baserunners. For balls in play, it tends to favor ground ball pitchers more than fly ball pitchers. This is because ground balls have a higher tendency to be turned into outs. Through the aforementioned stretch, this doesn’t help Boyd as much due to his 33.8 GB% and 44.6 FB%. Concerning SIERA in total, however, Boyd has a 2.97. This falls between the fantastic to great range that FanGraphs illustrates in a graph on their SIERA page.
For the entire season, Boyd’s case becomes even more interesting. The power opponents have against his pitches gets better. Throughout the year, he has a .315 BABIP, 1.57 HR/9, and a 16.5 HR/FB%. His control isn’t as good as the June-July stretch, however, it’s still quite adequate. He has a 12 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, and a 6.46 K/BB. His FIP improves to 3.57 while his xFIP decreases to 3.38. His SIERA also decreases, however, it’s still very satisfactory at 3.24. So, is he very inconsistent?
Boyd definitely isn’t worth what the Tigers have asked for, such as Gleyber Torres. But, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t quite valuable. His advanced numbers explain the errors that his standard numbers don’t talk about, despite the fact that the latter is quite poor. There is no doubt to anyone who has thoroughly looked at his advanced numbers that giving up multiple high-upside prospects for Boyd could be of value to both teams. While the Tigers likely won’t get a blue piece star for Boyd, his value is surely underrated and could prove beneficial for a contending team.
The MLB Enthusiast 