The Nationals have had a very underwhelming season. After the surplus of cash spent in free agency, they seemed to be ready for a rebound after a very discouraging 2018 season. Since the offseason, however, the performance has been quite egregious. As of right now, they stand 31-35 which puts them at 4th place in the NL East. So, what’s next? In this article, I’ll breakdown what their future direction should be and why Max Scherzer has to be the turning point for it.
What Should They Do?
The simple answer to their struggles is, in my opinion, a rebuild. Now, in their situation, a rebuild would pan out to be very interesting. They have many prospects just breaking to the big league level such as Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. They also have many starters under huge contracts, all of which are backloaded. With a team on both an uprise and decline, a rebuild would fare to be very interesting.
A rebuild brings them many advantages. The most would be avoiding some of the Braves’ championship window. As of right now, the Phillies and Braves fare to be threats. For the future, the Braves fare to be more competitive for a longer timeline. With six current top prospects on the 2019 top 100, as well as Mike Soroka, Ronald Acuña, and Ozzie Albies already in the majors, they look to be ready to assert their dominance soon. Avoiding some of that window is key. Not only does it give the Nationals an advantage as they could catch them on a decline, but it also allows their youngest roster to compete with their prime roster.
A rebuild also cancels the inevitable regression and mediocre seasons their roster will bring. A rebuild still mires them in mediocrity for the foreseeable future, however, a winning window will come much faster. This has happened before, such as with the White Sox in the mid-2010s, Orioles a few years back, and even the Mets last offseason. Avoiding a decade-long mediocrity window is very important, especially when the opportunity to do it is right in front of the front office. It brings the opportunity to gain millions more, as well as gain more wins over a shorter time.
The Max Scherzer Factor
It’s no surprise to anyone that Scherzer has the résumé of someone near the Hall of Fame. Over his career, he has posted a 163-87 record, 3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2575 K, 604 BB, and a .223 BAA in 2210 IP. Not to mention that his numbers have improved as he has aged, winning the Cy Young two of the last three seasons, as well as one in 2013 with the Tigers. He also has been a dominant strikeout man for most of his career, only having a K/9 below 10 for three out of the twelve years of his career.
A large factor in a potential trade for Scherzer would be, in my opinion, his contract. As it stands, Scherzer is making an annual average value of $42.143M until the 2022 offseason. For the production and consistency he brings, that isn’t an awful contract. However, contracts usually are the main roadblock in blockbuster trades. We saw with the Stanton trade and how little the Marlins could receive with the Yankees taking on his entire deal. However, the Nationals aren’t in the same situation as Jeffrey Loria was. To maximize potential return, they should be able to take on about half of his remaining salary.
If the Nationals swallow a portion of his remaining salary, they should have no trouble finding elite talent in return. A player of Scherzer’s caliber rarely, if ever, comes onto the market and many teams will take notice. This would be a great way to add to the young nexus of Soto, Robles, and Kieboom as well as a transition from the aging roster status. It would also make trading guys like Stephen Strasburg and maybe even Patrick Corbin easier. This would allow them to become younger and hopefully build up the roster they had a few years back with a similar rebuild.
While trading your star player is never easy and comes with repercussions, the bottom line is really what matters. Yes, the owners will economically suffer if Scherzer is traded. Yes, they will get suffer a barrage of backlash if a deal for him was completed. But, the bottom line is really what matters. Trading Scherzer is a step in that direction, as facing the truth early is better than suffering from that denial later. While a trade involving Scherzer has its risks for the Nationals, its rewards have the potential chance of outweighing them.
The MLB Enthusiast 