Manny Machado, 4-time all-star, 2-time gold glove winner, and the holder of a platinum glove entering a hitter’s prime years at the age of 26. With this and great stats on a 7-year résumé, it’s hard to discredit giving him a mega-deal. Although the market for him was preeminent with a few teams, the money being talked about was one that a lot of people couldn’t fathom. In this article, I’ll break down the pros and cons of this mega-deal as well as the effect of it on the financial future of the MLB.
As the final hour neared with Machado, the Padres were looking for a hail mary. Despite having a promising future in middle infield prospects Luis Urías and Fernando Tatis Jr, they saw Machado as a can’t miss piece for all of the uncertainty in their farm. One that could give possibly give them the same winning value now as with five years down the line. So A.J. Preller and the Padres front office took a risk and gave Machado a 10-year contract worth $300M at a $30M annual average value.
Of course, we’ve all seen what Machado is capable of. It wasn’t so long ago that he posted a .297/.367/.538 stat line, 6.2 fWAR, and a 141 wRC+. With him having posted similar numbers in the past, such as a .294/.343/.533 line in 2016 and a .286/.359/.502 line in 2015, it’s quite coherent to think he will be good for years to come. The only potential roadblocks I could see in his future was a disappointing 2017 season in which he posted a .259/.310/.471 stat line, 2.6 fWAR, and a 103 wRC+, as well as a decent stint with LA in which he posted a .273/.338/.487 stat line.
Another large potential pay-off could be Machado becoming a leader among the phenoms the Padres have acquired. Among these names are Tatis Jr, Urías, Francisco Mejía, as well as some young and developing players like Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, and Franchy Cordero. I am of the philosophy that development from external sources is the most important thing for young players, especially with prospects who are projects. None of the guys I mentioned are sure-fire things however, with the right development, they definitely could be. Machado helps them with that, already being a successful hitter himself and having gone what they’ve gone through. Machado entered the league a month after turning 20, and had to adjust to the hype he received in the minors, and trying to live up to it, which he did. Passing that same information and mindset to these young guys could play a crucial role in their success at the big league level.
Analyzing the worth of Machado, it’s quite clear that he’s not worth the money he received. Only one season with an OPS over .900 getting you $300M seems quite humorous to me, despite the obvious incentives you get with having a player of his popularity on your roster. Sure, he’s just entering a hitter’s usual prime years however, I believe that prime years differ for some hitters. Machado, in my opinion, started his a few years ago, when he started posting all-star hitting numbers. The good thing for him is that his stats have usually been on an upward trend excluding the egregious 2017 season.
In short, while the bonuses such as a defensive wizard, higher attendance in games, and more team popularity across the league will benefit from Machado, it doesn’t justify a $300M price tag. This is where the effect it’ll have on the future of the MLB comes in. Machado isn’t the only young talent on the market this year, as star right fielder Bryce Harper is still searching for a home. Any team that signs him will receive the incentives I listed above minus the spectacular defense.
We are in the midst of an era in baseball where incentives of a contract could provide more benefits to owners and front office members than actual stats. While stats will make the fans happy, incentives will make the owners money. In baseball, the latter usurps the former nine times out of ten. Obviously that’s a bit of hyperbole, but I think it illustrates the point quite well. So in a way, this deal could be a large win for San Diego, as they’ll get stats and incentives to try and make up for that $300M price tag, which I doubt will happen. Despite the obvious opportunity to make millions, they will never be able to make enough to justify providing Machado $30M on a yearly basis until he’s 36.
This contract could illustrate what’s to come with players like Machado down the line. In the next 2 years we may see big names like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts hit the market, and teams will use incentives to justify the deal along with stats, despite it still being a possible, maybe even likely, overpay. This may negatively collide with some owners’ reluctancy to spend, yet there will always be some who want to go after this high end talent for a statistical bonus, plus incentives.
So when A.J. Preller and the Padres front office see Machado, they don’t just see a statistical benefit. They see him guiding the young prospects, possibly replacing one should things go awry, and drawing more fans and making the team more popular among the league. They see him as an asset and as a superstar. There will be more like Machado, who are treated with the same thought process. The game will evolve to strengthen the incentive part of a contract, while always leaving the stats as the main reason to do a deal in my opinion. The Padres will get significant on and off-field benefits with Machado, but in my opinion it just isn’t enough to justify a $300M price tag, despite the incentives and stats.
The MLB Enthusiast 