This article was made in collaboration with a diehard Mets fan. Follow him on Twitter: Mets Realist, @GKRFanBoy
Mets Realist: Despite the bitter taste of defeat from Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, it was hard not to be optimistic about the future as a Mets fan. They had the deepest starting rotation in the major leagues with three guys that would have been the ace on most teams and they had finally found their slugger. Fast forward three years later, and the Mets have once again become the laughing stocks of baseball. So where did it all go wrong?
A lot of Mets fans will point to ownerships reluctance to spend a lot of money in free agency which is without a doubt one of the contributors to the team being who they are today, but it is not one of the main reason contrary to popular belief. One of the biggest mistakes that this franchise made in the Sandy Alderson era was the decision not to re-sign Daniel Murphy after he had finally developed the power to go along with his batting average. He proved the following year that his post season was no fluke. Aside from Murphy, the Mets have failed to develop a single homegrown position player other that has had sustained success at the major league level in this decade. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo have been the closest players to achieving that; both of whom are prone to the strike out and general inconsistent play. The signings of Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak this offseason have been a nightmare to say the least. And of course, Yoenis Cespedes who carried the team to the playoffs in 2015 is going to be out until at least next year’s All-Star Break.
But the mistake that I believe we should learn from the most is the decision not to trade any of our starting pitchers that following offseason, since the team had an excess of that and a dire need for consistency throughout their lineup. After the World Series run, I was one of the few that wanted the Mets to trade Matt Harvey because of the lack of depth both in their lineup at the major league club as well as that in their farm system. They could have gotten a great haul of prospects for him and the Red Sox were one of the teams who expressed interest in him; who at the time, had Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi and Michael Kopech in their farm system. Mookie Betts was also rumored to have been on the trading block to secure Matt Harvey. But no! He was the Dark Knight, our homegrown superstar who had a Cy Young Caliber year coming off of Tommy John surgery. He was supposed to be the next face of the franchise. Needleless to say, after Harvey lobbied to come back out in the ninth inning, it was all downhill from there. It’s very sad how injuries have destroyed his career.
Now that it’s been the second consecutive season that the Mets have missed the playoffs, they are faced at a crossroads. Jacob deGrom is coming off an incredible year in which he posted a 1.70 ERA and was the Cy Young Award winner. After years of injuries keeping him off the field, Zack Wheeler had a great second half of the season in which he was nearly as statistically dominant as Jacob deGrom was. It was really great to hear him say that he has become the pitcher that he was supposed to be, and let’s hope that he continues on this path. Even though Noah Syndergaard missed some time, he had flashes where he reminded everyone why his nickname is, Thor, aside from the obvious physical similarities. With a pitching staff like this, you’d think that the Mets were close to being a playoff team, but that is unfortunately far from the case. Aside from Rookie Jeff McNeil, there was not one hitter in the lineup that consistently produced this season. Having the second lowest batting average in baseball speaks for itself. The bullpen was as usual, was one of the worst in the league. The writing is on the wall, it is time for the Mets to cash in on their assets and initiate a rebuild, and this should be a very exciting time to be a Mets fan. Unfortunately this will never happen, but it should.
THE NEXT WINDOW: ETA 2022
Before getting into the trades that the Mets should talk about this offseason; let’s first discuss why it’s in the best interest of the long term future of the organization to commit to a rebuild as opposed to spending this offseason, which is something that we all know the Wilpon’s simply are not willing to do. However, even if they were willing to spend this offseason, a rebuild is still the right choice. A lot of fans want the Mets to go out and sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper this offseason. Although both of them are great players, I don’t think that they are worth the money and time commitment that will be associated with their future contracts that will get finalized at some point over the next few months. Additionally, neither one of these players would make this team a contender as there are many more holes to fill than just a big bat. The roster currently needs more depth in all of the areas, including starting pitching. Aside from the holes on the roster that really can’t be filled in just one offseason, the competition within the NL East is another reason that has gotten overlooked. The Braves have a great young team that is only going to get better; and if they Mets want to compete with them for the top spot in our division over the next decade, we are going to have to prioritize future success over the present. Aside from Peter Alonso who should get called up next season and Jarred Kelenic, the Mets really don’t have any other players in the farm system that project to be future players at the major league level.
I know that this is not an easy decision for the front office and many of the fans, but this is not something to be upset about. Yes, it is unfortunate that the Mets will not win a World Series with Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard on the team. However, the Mets are incredibly lucky to have the necessary pieces to really expedite a rebuild. When most teams commit to a rebuild, they are usually looking at a five year process before they can start seeing the start of it coming to fruition unless. If the Mets were to follow this path and get the best prospects available regardless of when they’re expected to be ready for the big leagues, they would begin to see results in as little as just three years. If the Mets were to initiate a rebuild this offseason, it would finally mean that the ownership group is committed to building a sustained winner. Even though it would lead to two to three losing seasons, it would give Mets fans a reason to finally have hope that years of winning baseball are finally ahead. There is a lot of young talent throughout the minor leagues that the Mets could acquire by dealing the big three. Let’s go over these trades now.
The Jacob deGrom Trade
Brewers recieve: RHP Jacob deGrom
Mets recieve: RHP Corbin Burnes, 2B Keston Hiura, OF Corey Ray, SS Mauricio Dubon
There is no doubt that Jacob deGrom was very deserving of the Cy Young Award this past season. He was under duress in the majority of his innings pitched and still had the lowest earned run average in all of baseball, by a significant margin. Even though I fully expect deGrom to be a top pitcher in the game for at least the next three seasons barring injury, this will likely go down as his career year and he will never has as much value on the market as he currently does. Along with the fact that he still has two more years left of control, we need to get the best available package for him.
The Brewers are the best suitor for Jacob deGrom for many reasons. After coming off of a great season and nearly made the World Series, they seem to be a threat in the competitive NL Central for many years to come. Having and ace like Jacob deGrom would really put them over the top and maximize their chances for winning a World Series in the next two seasons. Opportunities like this don’t come around too often, especially for teams in small markets like Milwaukee. They were an ace away from making it to the World Series, and acquiring Jacob deGrom would likely be an offer that the Brewers simply cannot pass up.
In this trade, it is crucial that the Mets acquire the best combination of ceiling and floor available. The two headlines of this trade are right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes and second baseman Keston Hiura. Burnes debuted this past July and has mainly worked out of the bullpen in his short major league career. The Brewers view him as a starter in the long run with a mid-rotation floor. His best pitchers are his two seam fastball which reaches 98-99 mph but will sit at 96 and his splitter. Burnes’ repertoire also features a curveball and slider, which will need some more polishing at the big league level.
Keston Hiura would be the most exciting player of the four in this trade. All the ninth overall pick of the 2017 draft has done since he entered professional baseball is hit. In just his second season, he has already made it to AAA and is expected to get called up at some point next season, if not opening day. He tore up the Arizona Fall League and has hit .371 and .297 in each of this two minor league seasons. The scouts have given him a 70 hit and 50 power hit grade, which is an accurate grade with his feel for the strike zone as well as his short and compact right-handed swing. At worst, Hiura will be a .280 hitter with 20 home runs during his prime in the major leagues. He is exactly the piece that the Mets as well as any rebuilding team needs for their future.
The other two prospects in this deal, Corey Ray and Mauricio Dubon are the supplemental prospects in this trade. Ray was a former fifth overall pick who has been dubbed as a five tool player. However, he has struggled to make consistent contact throughout his minor league career and has an alarming strike out rate. Dubon is an underrated player who hit over .300 last season. He is great defensively and has the potential to evolve into a starter. However, most likely he will be a great player to have on the bench. Overall, this trade would greatly benefit both sides. The Mets will add to their future core in both the starting rotation as well as the lineup, and the Brewers get the ace that they so desperately need to be the clear favorite to represent the National League in the World Series next season.
The Noah Syndergaard trade
Reds recieve: RHP Noah Syndergaard
Mets recieve: RHP Hunter Greene, 3B Jonathan India, OF Mike Siani
Steven: While Syndergaard has been a huge success for a player who wasn’t highly thought of when he was traded, he has a lot of value and doesn’t really fit the scheme the Mets should go for. The Reds are the perfect candidates for them, while having a very underrated hitting core and bullpen, they lack the prescence of a dominant starter to lead the inconsistent rotation. Noah is all that and more, as he has proven to be dominant in clutch situations, a need that the Reds should covet once their window hits in two years or so. While Noah has been injury prone, his upside outshines his negatives, as when he is healthy is he very dominant, something the Reds haven’t seen in their rotation for awhile.
As spoken of before, the Mets likely will not see big success with Syndergaard as the backup captain behind deGrom. That’s not to say it’s Syndergaard’s fault, he has done the best he could for the Mets, but it shows a lack of depth among the roster. The most consistent hitter the Mets have right now is Jeff McNeil, although they have seen good situational hitters in Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, these aren’t guys to depend on, as their batting averages aren’t near the .300 level. Their bullpen was also horrible, so
As for the Mets they will get a good return for what Noah will likely command. Greene was dominant in high school with his bat and arm, a tool that made Shohei Ohtani such a popular prospect, as he hit for a .324 BA and a 1.62 ERA during his high school career. Although he has transitioned to a pitching role, he has the dominant fastball and control necessary to be similar or possibly more to what Syndergaard was. Not to mention him getting hitting opportunities in the NL will be a beneficial plus.
India was considered one of the best infield prospects available in the draft, being beaten out by Alec Bohm and Nick Madrigal. He has the hitting potential to be a star, as he’s a well-rounded hitter and fielder with possibly the most power potential in his draft class. Although he’s not among the biggest names like Eloy Jimenez and Nick Senzel, he’s still a raw prospect that has the potential to be molded into a power threat at third base for the Mets, as on draft day he drew some similarities in swing to former MVP Josh Donaldson. Siani isn’t the best prospect available, but his defense in the outfield is something to watch and he has a smooth left-handed swing, possibly being able to develop into a decent power bat in the outfield for the Mets.
The Zack Wheeler Trade
Astros recieve: Zack Wheeler
Mets recieve: Yordan Alvarez (OF), J.B. Bukauskas (RHP) and Garrett Stubbs (C)
Mets Realist: One of the best stories in all of baseball last season was the success that Zack Wheeler had in the second half. The former fourth overall pick battled injuries that kept him off the field from 2015-2017; and when he was healthy, he did not perform well. At a crossroads for his career at age 28, Wheeler finally put it all together and showed the world why he was once a highly regarded prospect. He was nearly as dominant as deGrom was after the All-Star break. However; Wheeler does not have as much value as Jake and Noah due to his injury, age and only having one more year left of control. Therefore, a suitor for Wheeler would need to be a team that is poised to make a deep playoff run and has one very attractive prospect.
After a disappointing loss to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS and the fact that they may lose Dallas Kuechel and Charlie Morton, the Astros are likely to be looking to add another starter to their rotation this offseason. Despite having a lot of young talent at the major league level, they still have a very impressive farm system. Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker will likely be Rookies this season and I can’t see the Astros trading either of them. The headline of this trade is Yordan Alvarez, a 21-year-old who is currently the 42nd ranked prospect and is expected to reach the majors in 2020. After hitting .325 with 12 homeruns in AA last season; he was promoted to AAA, where he initially struggled but made the necessary adjustments at the plate at the end of the season. His short and compact left-handed swing typically translates well to the major league level. As far as his fielding is concerned, he has slightly above average speed and is more athletic than most players at 6’5. However, he will likely play left-field due to his fringy arm strength grades.
The other two pieces in this trade are right-handed pitcher J.B. Bukauskas and catch Garrett Stubbs. At 6 feet tall, there are many questions as to whether or not Bukaskas can be a starting pitcher from a durability standpoint. The 2017 fifteenth overall pick has a fastball that reaches the high 90s but typically stays in 96-97 range with sink. His slider is his second best pitch which consistently sits in the mid-80s. At the very least, Bukaskas will be a reliable arm to have in the bullpen, but undoubtedly has the stuff to be a starting pitcher. Stubbs does not fit the current mold that most catchers in today’s game have from an offensive standpoint. He is a contact that his .310 in AAA last season. He is an above average defensive catcher as well, and is known for having slightly above-average arm strength with a quick transfer. The main question about Stubbs are both his power and stamina, but he is still a great complimentary piece to this trade.
Steven: After these trades, it can definitely be argued that the Mets have a top 5 farm system in baseball, if not definitely top 10. Compliment top prospects Greene (22), Hiura (30), Alvarez (42), and India (51) with the top prospects the Mets already have, Andres Gimenez (55), Peter Alonso (58), Jarred Kelenic (62), and Justin Dunn (89), and you have 8 top 100 prospects on your team, which only a select amount of teams can brag about.
After those trades you have a future infield of Alonso, McNeil, Hiura, and India with Gimenez, Dubon, and Amed Rosario as the backup options, and a future outfield of Nimmo, Kelenic, and Alvarez with backup options of Conforto, Ray, and Siani. The pitching core is decent, with Greene, Burnes, and Dunn as the best pitching prospects, plus Bukauskas. Not to mention the decent catcher you get in Stubbs.
Part of a rebuild is acquiring high quality prospects to build depth in the farm, that way when the team is ready to contend and they need to fix a hole, they have the farm capital to do it. Arguably this is a loaded hitting core for the Mets. They get an overhauled roster plus four decent pitchers for the future. This isn’t even to get into the draft picks they will hold the next three drafts, as the in 2019 MLB Draft they will hold the 12th pick but I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 2 years the picks are 5-10 or maybe even in the top 4, all of this combined equals a great future team for the Mets, as they might even be able to trade Conforto, Steven Matz, Cespedes, or Jay Bruce if they produce next year, possibly getting an even bigger prospect haul. With the team they have, a rebuild could create great opportunities, opportunities they saw in the middle of the decade.
The MLB Enthusiast 