Yoán Moncada was once considered to be a future star for the Red Sox and White Sox due to his massive ceiling and minor league stats. Many scouts were saying he had the potential to be the next Robinson Canó and that he had enough upside to be a perrenial all-star. The MLB even ranked him number 1 in their top 100 prospects in 2016. The White Sox fully knew this when they traded one of the greatest pitchers in the history of their franchise, Chris Sale, for a deal centered around Moncada, top pitching prospect Michael Kopech, and decent outfield prospect Luis Alecander Basabe. In this article, I’ll be dissecting Moncada’s struggles, how the Sox have handled it, and how he can get better.
Moncada is in his third MLB season and first full one. Last year, he played for about half a year, as he was called up on July 19 and finished with 231 plate appearances. This is his first full year, and he has been really struggling so far, posting a .218 BA, 14 HR, 45 RBI, .300 OBP, .390 SLG, .690 OPS, 49 walks, 163 strikeouts, 91 H, 20 2B, and 5 3B in 471 plate appearances. His strikeouts are incredibly concerning, as in his last 30 games he’s had 44 strikeouts in 114 at-bats, but he had 21 walks. He’s also regressing from his year last season, where he was a bit below average, posting a .750 OPS with a .231 BA.
Moncada’s strikeouts, while scary, are not 100% to blame on him. While he’s on pace to break the all-time MLB strikeout record for a hitter in a single season, a decent portion of his strikeouts have been bad calls from umpires. On June 12, 32.2% of his strikeouts were looking, so obviously his plate aggresiveness has been very bad. He has taken many pitches, but he has a very good swing, as his average exit velocity is 92.3 mph, which is a bit better than .885 OPS David Peralta. If he utilizes this swinging ability more, then he can definitely become a better hitter.
“At some point, you hit a point of frustration where you say,‘Man, I have to pull the trigger on particular pitches’. I think he’s finally reached that point. So now it’s about getting over that and seeing himself defend and battle and put balls in play and fight pitches. He has a great eye on balls for everything in the zone. Now it’s about battling tough pitches in certain situations.’’ -White Sox manager Rick Renteria about Moncada
One reason why Moncada’s stats don’t seem so worrying is because they, in their first 162 games, are very similar to Cubs’ infielder Javier Báez, who is a contender for the NL MVP this season. Báez has posted a .298 BA, 25 HR, 88 RBI, .331 OBP, .585 SLG, .916 OPS, 17 walks, 105 strikeouts, 125 H, 31 2B, and 7 3B in 445 plate appearances. In their first 162 games, Moncada posted a .720 OPS, 22 HR, 67 RBI, and 235 strikeouts while Báez posted a .693 OPS, 20 HR, 59 RBI, and 177 strikeouts. Both were hyped prospects, as Báez ranked number 9 out of 100 in MLB’s 2013 prospect watch.
This comparison, in my opinion, is slightly flawed for a few reasons. One is they both have different playing styles, as Moncada focuses more on walks than Báez, as he has 49 this season while Báez has 17. Another would be the way each front office handled each player’s struggles. Báez’s first season with over 200 plate appearances was awful, as he posted a .169 BA with a .551 OPS in 229 plate appearances. Moncada had a .231 BA with a .750 OPS in 231 plate appearances. He was likely below average last season, as 2017 season averages included a .255 BA with a .750 OPS.
Now, obviously Báez’s season was much worse, but I think the Sox should’ve sent Moncada to Triple-A after that season. When Báez went to Triple-A in 2015 he dominated, posting a .324 BA, 13 HR, 61 RBI, .385 OBP, .527 SLG, .911 OPS, 21 walks, 76 strikeouts, 91 H, 14 2B, and 2 3B in 281 at-bats there. That, with his solid postseason performance in 2015 and co-winning the NLCS MVP with Jon Lester in 2016, is what I think gave him enough confidence to do good in 2017 and 2018.
Moncada however, has had hardly anything to give him confidence. His best season was 2017 and he was still slightly below average. Not to mention how he did in Triple-A for the White Sox in Charlotte. He played for half a season there, hitting well though not like Báez did in Triple-A Iowa. Moncada posted a .282 BA, 12 HR, 36 RBI, .377 OBP, .447 SLG, .823 OPS, 49 walks, 102 strikeouts, 87 H, 9 2B, and 3 3B in 309 at-bats in Charlotte. That and his below average season last year didn’t give him a ton of confidence for this season in my opinion.
Now, if the Sox sent Moncada to Triple-A I don’t think it would decrease his confidence. For one, if he goes down and finishes with stats like a .850+ OPS or minor league stats similar to Báez, then I think it would increase his confidence. Sox GM Rick Hahn has been slow in calling up his prospects like Kopech, but he really rushed Moncada as he expected a guy with a .823 OPS in Triple-A to somehow do better in the majors. If he got sent down and did better I do think it would be something to increase his confidence.
One reason this could work is because it partially had with other players. Cubs’ left fielder Kyle Schwarber had a down season last year and was sent to Triple-A Iowa on June 22 after posting a .204, .120, and .196 BA and a .677, .569, and .849 OPS in April, May, and June. When he came back up on July 6 after posting a great .343 BA and 1.192 OPS in the minors, he did much better, as after the All-Star Break he posted a .253 BA, .335 OBP, .559 SLG, and a .894 OPS and he finished the season with a decent .782 OPS.
Moncada does have a decent future ahead of him, but he needs to unlock a few more things to reach that. The one I addressed was his plate aggressiveness, which is currently weak. If he does that his slugging percentage could be more like Báez. He is still very young though and he is only in his first full season. While his potential is high, he still needs to unlock some pieces to get to where Sox fans want him to be, and plate aggressiveness is probably the most preeminent out of all of his weaknesses. While Moncada’s future is blurry, he has a lot of tools to help him, if he can lower his weaknesses.
The MLB Enthusiast 