On December 7, 2017, the Cubs signed a righty named Tyler Chatwood to a 3 year /$38M contract. There was huge risk with this signing considering Chatwood’s stats from 2017 included a 4.69 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, and it was known that his control was extremely rocky. Epstein and Hoyer decided to roll the dice though, and they gave him what was, in my opinion, a bloated contract for a player of Chatwood’s skillset.
Previous to his Cubs tenure, I never really watched or heard about Chatwood. I think I’d definitely seen him play but I obviously wasn’t really into him that much. Heck, when I heard we were signing him I thought it was another Rockies starter. When the Cubs first acquired him I was very upset that Theo offered him that much money for a guy who didn’t even look that good. I heard about Coors being the reason for him being terrible but I knew that wasn’t it due.
This signing had its extreme risks and any Cubs fan who looked at his SO/BB and BB/9 innings numbers knew that. The way it has played out hasn’t been good at all and it makes me even more upset knowing that Theo and Jed had passed on Justin Verlander the year previous. So far in this 2018 season, Chatwood has posted a 3-5 record, 5.04 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 76 SO, 73 BB, and a .246 BAA in 84 innings pitched and 17 games started.
I think it’s safe to say that Tyler was Theo and Jed’s biggest strikeout pitching-wise as his stats show. The biggest problem with Chatwood were his obvious control issues. His pitching windup focuses more on getting the best velocity out of his pitch than getting it to a good area in the strike zone. I am not completely blaming Jed and Theo for this move, it was early in the offseason and they couldn’t have predicted how the marquee free agents got worse deals than they would’ve gotten two or three years ago. People were more cautious with free agents realizing that most big contract ones don’t work out well. Theo and Jed didn’t predict this and gave Chatwood a big contract for a player of his skillset.
He has pitched a little over half that he likely will this season, so I think it’s time to think about this question: Will Chatwood be a big part of this future rotation? First I’ll try my best to answer this in the short-term and I’d say no short-term wise. This year is the best I’ve seen since ’16 for a deep playoff run, especially with the fact that the Dodgers have gotten weaker and some playoff teams in the NL are a bit inexperienced. The market on starting pitchers this year for the Cubs is very fruitful and could potentially include Blue Jays LHP J.A. Happ, Rangers LHP Cole Hamels, or Reds RHP Matt Harvey. All of these guys aren’t great, but they’re better than Chatwood.
Now, if we’re talking about the long-term then yes, I do think that Chatwood will be the 5th starter in this rotation for the remainder of his contract. There are many reasons for this. One is that major league pitchers who have pitched 6 years or more can’t be sent into the minors. Chatwood has been pitching since 2011, so he can’t be sent to the minors. Another reason is that the Cubs aren’t going to waste the $38 million he makes in the bullpen especially because he probably wouldn’t be much better there.
As much as many Cubs fan would love to see Chatwood traded or leave, it likely won’t happen. This was by far Theo and Jed’s worst move free agency wise. At least Heyward has good defense and his hitting hasn’t become terrible. Chatwood literally hasn’t shown one positive as a Cubs starter. In my opinion, he’s best compared to White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito, but with more velocity. His control and command isn’t good and if you wait, it’s incredibly easy to walk off of him. However, he still has some potential. He has only pitched one year at Wrigley, and if Heyward could transform, then so can he. It’s unpredictable and that’s how baseball is, so we’ll see in a year or so.
The MLB Enthusiast 