Manny Machado has been a big headline for the American League for the past few years. Every year the impact he makes is largely noticed by the entire league. After glory being on the Baltimore Orioles as a controlled player, it’s time for him to go. There are a lot of points that back this theory up, and it’s not a relatively new one either, as some people have kicked around the idea before, for reasons such as the money he’ll want or his unlikeliness to sign an extension with Baltimore.
“It’s been reported by Ken Rosenthal that Machado’s next contract could get into the $400M range, which, while insanely high, sounds relatively reasonable when compared to Giancarlo Stanton’s $325M deal. That’s money I don’t see the Orioles shelling out, especially considering their team record is Chris Davis’s $161M deal.” -Ben Palmer, The Baltimore Wire, Nov 30, 2016
While him getting a $400 million contract today is far more unlikely, it shows that he will likely test the waters of free agency, to see what he thinks. There are some teams who would be willing to shell out a big contract for a young shortstop like Machado, who turns 26 on July 6. His talents are up there in the top of the MLB, as he sports 3 MLB All-Star appearances (2013, 2015, 2016). Machado also displays a career 30.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which would put his average WAR per year at 4.3, although he has only had 4 years with over 500 at bats.
Machado has impressed an absolute ton over the last few years on the diamond, winning two gold gloves (2013 and 2015), a platinum glove (2013), and a Wilson Team Defensive Player of the Year award (2013). He also has is tied for the 8th best single-season Defensive WAR in major league history, as he had a 4.4 in 2013. He is tied with Hall of Famer Frankie Frisch, who had it in 1927 and Mark Belanger, who had it in 1968. If you look at some Manny Machado plays highlights, you can clearly see that this is a top defender in the MLB.
Not only that, but his hitting has also been very good the last few years. This is now Machado’s 7th year in the MLB and over his career, he has amassed many great stats. His career stats include a .282 AVG, 151 HR, 444 RBI, .333 OBP, .485 SLG, .818 OPS, 249 walks, 588 strikeouts, 917 hits, 187 doubles, and 9 triples in 3546 plate appearances. This may seem lackluster compared to what people say about him, but he wasn’t on much of a booming start with his bat for his first 3 MLB years or 1,266 plate appearances. Recently, however, he’s had a majority of years with an OPS above the .800s.
Getting back to the main point, there are multiple reasons why Machado should be traded this year. One would be the immediate direction the Orioles are heading in or are already in. After that Wild Card game in 2016, a lot of their players really haven’t been the same. Guys like Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis significantly decreased their game, and with that, the Orioles went from 89-73 in 2016 to 75-87 in 2017. All of this is pointing to a rebuild, and with the massive juggernauts building up in the American League such as the Astros and Yankees, the Orioles have been pretty much forgotten in this new league.
The Orioles also have some more of their best players hitting the market this year, including CF Adam Jones, RP Brad Brach, and RP Zach Britton. While Britton’s spent the better part of the last year on the DL, Brach and Jones are two players who would make good additions on other teams besides Baltimore. Jones himself talked about free agency at the Orioles FanFest.
“Different situations in previous years have been handled differently and I didn’t see that. So, I just have to have a clear and open mind about the whole situation and not just make a rash decision. And now it’s not just my decision, it’s my family’s decision. But most importantly, it’s about winning, and anybody that knows me knows that. It’s not about money, it’s about winning and if I’m in a winning environment, I’ll be happy.” -Adam Jones at Orioles FanFest
The key factor in this quote is Jones’s focus on winning, which the Orioles will not do much of or hardly any of in the upcoming future, based on the current roster. If Jones decides he wants to have a better chance at winning and heads off to a team like the Giants or Diamondbacks I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Same with Brach, as his stats from the last few years with his ERA and WHIP show that there will be teams talking to him this winter. Now, the Orioles could resign all of these players and let’s say they do. Easily, this will cost them over $200 million total, over a course of about 6 or 7 years. That would cost them more money than they’re already paying for the players, making free agency a tougher game if they want to try and get better through that route.
Another reason is the risk Machado walks and they get nothing out of him. Now, this risk is more significant than people would think. Throughout his tenure as an Oriole, he has experienced one division title and two Wild Cards, not making it to one pennant, and the one ALCS he went to they were swept by the Kansas City Royals. If Machado sees an offer from a team he realizes is winning now or has a better chance to in the future, like the Cubs, Dodgers, or maybe even the White Sox, then he could take it. Machado has also never expressed a large interest to stay in Baltimore, so that could be a determining factor.
Trading Machado allows the Orioles to have much less of a risk with him. You trade him, you can resign him and have a few extra players to help is a possibility, like the Aroldis Chapman trade. Another possibility is that you trade him, lose him, but have some extra players to help. Either way, you still have extra players and don’t run the risk of losing him for nothing. With that, let’s look at some possible destinations for Machado in the coming months.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs, my favorite team, have definitely expressed some big interest in Machado the past few months and are quite possibly the team likeliest to trade for him. There have been many rumors of a deal involved with some of the young Cubs players, particularly shortstop Addison Russell, but some others have involved second baseman/outfielder Ian Happ, others had left-handed pitcher Mike Montgomery and maybe Adbert Alzolay from their farm system. The Cubs acquiring Machado would make a lot of sense if you look into it. First of all, they desperately need a guy to get the bats going more. Machado is definitely that type of player, as his career batting average is a solid .282. His presence on the defensive front on the diamond would also be predominant, as Machado never fails to flash some leather. Losing guys like Russell and Montgomery for the Cubs could hurt, as Russell is also a great defensive presence, but displays a career AVG of .241 and a career OPS of .718. Montgomery provides a solid long relief role for the Cubs, but has been slipping from his dominant 2016 form. Losing a young prospect like Alzolay could also hurt, as he has some good stuff that could give him a spot on the Cubs roster in the coming future. The Orioles would definitely benefit from a Machado trade to the Cubs, but the Cubs would definitely also be helped.
Los Angeles Dodgers
If I was making this list back in April, there is practically no chance that I would put the Dodgers in here. However, the latest addition to the list of injured Dodgers is Corey Seager, their stud young shortstop. Losing him will have a big impact on a potential return to the World Series, however, they may have lucked out. Machado would be a perfect candidate for the Dodgers because they do need a stud bat to get the offense going like they were in 2017. They definitely have the prospects or players to do a trade for him as well, as the Dodgers have the 10th best MLB farm system according to MLB Pipeline. They could give up someone like Jaren Kendall (OF) or Yadier Alvarez (RHP), or another decent contact hitter from their farm system. Having Machado would make a nice addition to the already powerful Dodgers roster, adding him with Bellinger, Turner, Kemp, Puig, etc. The Dodgers did have a team .249 AVG last year, and based on Machado’s stats the last few years and his start in 2018, he’ll add to that average very well. Also, looking at the Dodgers roster right now, it doesn’t take a genius to know that they need someone if they want a World Series title.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have definitely been a team that has struggled in the infield. They have studs Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb, but that’s pretty much where it ends. The Diamondbacks have been a team that has a real chance of contending, but them being able to do it will be tough. They need another really good player to help them in their playoff push and be able to back up guys like Goldschmidt, Lamb, Peralta, and Pollock. While the Diamondbacks farm system doesn’t offer very much, they still have some nice pieces that the Orioles could be interested in, such as Taylor Clarke (RHP) and Drew Ellis (3B). They could also definitely use an upgrade at shortstop, as their current guys over in that position are Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte, two decent players but nowhere near able to significantly help the team to a title. In 2017, Ahmed had a .251 AVG and a .717 OPS in 167 at bats, while Marte had a .260 AVG and a .740 OPS in 223 at bats. This is why Machado is their perfect fit. He provides an upgrade to the rough infield that the D-Backs currently have, and could be their piece to go far in the playoffs.
The MLB Enthusiast 