Walker Buehler is looking to make a big impact in the Dodgers rotation this year, and they’re certainly happy to have him. With stud starting pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu injured, Buehler is the perfect man for the Dodgers. Now, for present and future postseason rivals, this is somewhat bad news. The Dodgers have made it clear that they expect Kershaw and Ryu back this season, and having a rotation of them, Buehler, Rich Hill, and Alex Wood is definitely enough to send chills down a rival’s spine. The question now is how will Buehler adapt to this new major league climate, and can he keep the Dodgers afloat in this injury-filled season?

Buehler during his first career no-hitter on May 4 against the San Diego Padres       (Photo by Julio Cesar Aguilar, AFP/Getty Images)

Minor Leagues

Buehler started his Dodger career in 2016 in the rookie level of the MiLB, only pitching one game with 2 innings, no hits, no runs, no walks, and 3 strikeouts. Then, he was moved to Class A, where he posted 2 games (1 started), 3 innings, no hits, no runs, 3 walks, and 3 strikeouts. Fast forward to 2017, and Buehler started pitching in Class A Advanced, posting a 1.10 ERA in 5 games started, along with 16.1 innings pitched, 8 hits, 2 earned runs, 5 walks, 27 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP, and a .143 BAA. He was then moved up to Double-A, posting a 2-2 record and a 3.49 ERA in 11 games started. He also had 49 innings pitched, 40 hits, 19 earned runs, 15 walks, 64 strikeouts, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .225 BAA. Finally, he was moved up to Triple-A, where he posted a 1-1 record and 4.63 ERA in 12 games (3 started). He also had 23.1 innings pitched, 19 hits, 12 earned runs, 11 walks, 34 strikeouts, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .216 BAA. Earlier this year, Buehler started in Triple-A again, this time posting a 1-0 record, 2.08 ERA, 3 games started, 13 innings pitched, 10 hits, 3 earned runs, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts, 1.08 WHIP, and a .204 BAA before getting his second call to the big leagues on April 23.

Buehler had been a hyped up prospect in the MLB Pipeline for a while, so it made sense for him to be called up after all of these injuries to the pitching. As the #11 prospect in the MLB Pipeline’s 2018 top 100 MLB prospects (4th in pitchers total), he had a lot of excitement to his name. The scouts gave Buehler’s fastball a rating of 70, his curveball at 65, his slider at 60, his changeup at 50, and his control at 55, giving him an overall of 60. He impresses more with his pitch types and velocities, according to the MLB Pipeline.

“His fastball has jumped from 90-96 mph before surgery to 95-100 since, usually sitting in the upper 90s. He also has added velocity to his nasty curveball and plus slider, both of which miss bats, and he can turn the latter pitch into a cutter when desired.” -MLB Pipeline

They did mention some cons with his changeup and control, however.

“Buehler’s changeup shows some signs of becoming a solid fourth pitch, though it lacks consistency. His control wasn’t as sharp in 2017 as it had been in the past, and he got knocked around by more advanced hitters when he couldn’t harness his improved arsenal.” -MLB Pipeline

The changeup isn’t very worrying in my opinion, because if you look at successful guys who’ve had Tommy John Surgery, like Buehler, they don’t rely on their changeup as much as a fastball or sinker for example. Guys who’ve had the surgery, like Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, and Carlos Carrasco, don’t primarily rely on their changeup, according to Brooks Baseball. His control might be an issue in the future if you look at Lynn’s success. He gets an incredible ERA each year (3.49 career ERA), but he walks a ton of people each year. In 2017, he came in 3rd for most walks at 78 and in 2015 he came in 13th with 68. However, Carrasco recovered very well with 46 walks in 2017 and Darvish recovered decently, having 58 walks in 2017.

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Buehler pitching for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate, the Oklahoma City Dodgers, in 2017 (Photo by Bryan Terry, The Oklahoman)

MLB Experience

Buehler started his MLB career on September 7, 2017, as a reliever. From then to the end of the season, Buehler played in 8 games, posting a 1-0 record with 9.1 innings pitched, along with 11 hits, 8 earned runs, 8 walks, 12 strikeouts, a .306 BAA, and a 2.04 WHIP. Are these concerning? Not in the slightest in my opinion, as even Kershaw started his MLB career with a 4.26 ERA in his first year in 2008. Plus, it was his first year running into the majors blind with no idea what would happen, hoping his knowledge from the minors would carry him without having any experience in the majors and it was only 9 innings.

However, he is already off to a great start in 2018 pitching for the Dodgers despite only pitching 3 starts. In his first, against the Marlins, he went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits, no runs, 3 walks, and 5 strikeouts. His second start, against the Giants, saw him go 5 innings, giving up 6 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, and 6 strikeouts. His third start, against the Padres, was one in the Dodgers history books, as he went 6 innings, giving up no hits, no runs, 3 walks, and 8 strikeouts. The Dodgers bullpen carried what he started to get the second no-hitter of the year after Sean Manaea no-hit the Red Sox through all 9 innings.

Looking at all of these stats, you can’t determine Buehler’s recent starts as “flukes”. The man is definitely an above average pitcher, as proven from not only his recent major league starts, but his whole career in the MiLB. His velocity is definitely still holding up to what it was in the minor leagues, as he already has an average speed on his fastball of 96.21 mph, which is well above the league average of 92.74. While his control hasn’t held up as well as some would’ve liked, he has a decent K/BB at 2.7, and if he keeps up the strikeouts and walks he has now for 26 more starts, he should have about 68 walks and about 184 strikeouts. He also currently holds a 3.9 walks through 9 innings and a 10.7 strikeouts through 9 innings. His pitches per inning are a bit high. They include about 17 pitches per inning, about 11 strikes per inning, and about 6 balls per inning. The same stats per batter for him are about 4 pitches, 2 strikes, and 2 balls. Not bad stats at all, and looking at his recent starts, he’s adjusting into his role as a consistent starter well, and should throughout the rest of the year if his teammates back him up well at the plate and defensively. Knowing the Dodgers and their players, Buehler should prove to be a very good addition to their arsenal of pitchers, and really help the Dodgers in their rough patch right now.

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